DISQUS

Tom Chechatka · 1 year ago

Understanding how "the trend is your friend," I might answer your rhetorical question with one of my own... There is such a thing as being early to a fault, right?

I am reminded of the demise of Peloton Partners earlier this year, after having seen "opportunity" in deeply discounted, high grade structured products a wee bit too early...
marketfolly · 1 year ago

yea definitely, i'd agree with that for sure. its very often painful to be early, and that's why you have to constantly test your theses and make sure it is the market that is missing something and not you.

that's why i'm a big proponent of scaling into your plays, be it swing trades or actual core portfolio positions. allows you to get in with your thesis and then observe the price action and conduct further research.
Micky · 11 months ago

Bill Fleckenstein has been consistently and confidently very pessimistic about the U.S. economy.
When disaster does strike, he will have warned us, and warned us, and warned us...He makes his money off of this by short selling. You're either a part of the problem or part of the solution.
Did Bill finally get a conscience?
marketfolly · 11 months ago

Bill actually mentioned that the toll it was taking on him mentally was starting to build up... to constantly be short the US markets and companies. Very draining.