DISQUS

Market Folly: Eric Mindich's Eton Park Capital Buys More Gold: 13F Filing Q1 2009

  • TraderMark · 6 months ago
    Since this was of March 31st, it looks disastrous thus far - I assume he has been squeezed out of much of this already

    "Mindich also was loading up on Puts across various emerging markets names as he thinks they may be overextended near-term. He boosted put positions in the emerging markets exchange traded fund EEM, as well as in the Brazilian exchange traded fund EWZ, and in Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR). Although not specifically emerging market related, Mindich also brought on a large Put position in Potash (POT).
  • marketfolly · 6 months ago
    Ya one can assume, but no way to know for sure. Definitely a source of pain, but a few other things went his way so who knows.
  • Jason castew · 6 months ago
    how do you know he bought the puts..rather than sold?
  • marketfolly · 6 months ago
    hey Jason, thanks for the question. Basically, if you pull up the filing for this quarter and then the one from the quarter prior, you can compare then. The previous 13F shows a number of shares next to each put position. Then, in this quarter's filing, the number of shares for puts next to each position had increased. As such, he was buying them. It's really just a case of simple addition or subtraction between the filings.

    We will know when he sells them as well, as the number of shares will decrease if he does so. Since the # of shares from the puts increased on a quarter to quarter basis, he was buying.
  • PeterD · 6 months ago
    Hi, Jay.

    Remember when I wrote a couple of weeks ago about the potash mining company Potash1 (KCL---Toronto)? Well, as of today, the shares are up 85%. I am not writing this to gloat. Far from it. While I thought it was a smart long-term buy, I never for a second thought the shares would rocket up so fast. Of course I'm happy, but this freakin' market---up, up, and up---is starting to scare me a bit. Now, I notice the puts on potash.

    Cheers,

    ~Peter
  • marketfolly · 6 months ago
    Yes I do recall this Peter, congrats well played. I too have shared in the gains (but not quite as much as you!) with my play on MOS. I have since sold half to lock in profits and am gradually going to be scaling out of the rest.

    And yes the puts on potash are interesting, but he also has calls too so don't forget that. But, the puts definitely are a larger stake than the calls. Overall, it should be a good long-term trend. However, it never hurts to take profits in the short-term as corrections are always due.
  • PeterD · 6 months ago
    Jay,

    What is it they say in poker? If you haven't figured out who's the sucker at the table, chances are you're the sucker. That's how I feel about the market. And, you know, if this is a "dead cat bounce," then it's one helluva of a bounce! Thank you for the advice.

    ~Peter

    P.S. Jay, have you been tracking the selling by insiders lately? I read somewhere (sorry, can't recall) that the ratio is 14:1 sellers to buyers.

    Edit: I haven't forgotten. If it were not for your site, I would probably not have "peeked" into Soros' portfolio! You have a great site, Jay.
  • Jason castew · 6 months ago
    Hi MF

    I guess my question was..how do you know he was not selling long dated or LEAP naked puts..so that he can buy at a lower price..so in reality he is not bearish on the stock but rather bullish..but is using the volatility and temporary inefficiency to his advantage..
  • marketfolly · 6 months ago
    Ah ok now I see what you were getting at. That would technically be 'shorting' the puts then if he was selling them. And, the SEC filings only require them to disclose long or bought positions... we can't see what they're shorting. They very well could have other legs of their options trades, but we won't be able to see the short side of the trade.