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Hedge Fund Exposure Levels: Still Very Long Equities
a) Somehow I share the same thought as yours - Dec 2008 is more or less the bottom and from Jan 2009 onwards it should all be up and up. If the hedge funds always stick to the basic common sense approach of not becoming too greedy and leveraged, I think they would prove to be the catalyst for the much awaited recovery.
b) I do agree with you sir,Hedge fund industry does require consolidation through tougher regulations by authorities and smarter due diligence from the investors and this crisis is an opportunity for this industry to find a new and robust base and regain its fading charm.
Then I realized you were talking about my article where I said the bottom in the hedge fund panic sells/redemptions. That makes a lot more sense and I'm glad you share similar thoughts. More redemptions/deleveraging will come, but the big wave is behind us I feel (unless we get a sudden market panic again out of nowhere).
and yes, to add to your B) point, I'd say that funds who are smaller will also do better, as they can be more effective at deploying capital, while larger funds will struggle to park all their capital to earn some solid, or even safe returns. I think these funds who emerge as successful will help the industry re-emerge as the weak are shuffled out and the strongest survive and adapt.
Thanks again for reading and commenting.