Probably the better comparison is Weimar Germany 1923. The stage appears set for both a hyperinflationary blowout and a bankers' dictatorship once the mop-up operation goes down. The degree to which Congress is allowing the Treasury to move in the direction of insolvency should be a major concern. Someone explain how Treasury debt will not be downgraded from AAA eventually. This is very dangerous.
John Kaighn
· 11 months ago
This is great research for those of us who keep track of this information for our clients. The destruction of wealth and its impact on investors, psychologically, makes this recession interesting insofar as the choices to be made in the future regarding further nationalization of the health care system. These are very interesting times.
very interesting times indeed. to think, a lot has happened in just a year. wonder if '09 will be just as hectic... hopefully not.
kaighn
· 11 months ago
A great deal has certainly happened in just a year. I definitely hope 2009 is MUCH LESS HECTIC. Take a moment to read my blog and comment there. It would be appreciated.
Andy
· 11 months ago
My view on the current recession is that it will not be as bad as the Great depression and that we are more than half way through it. Just a few months ago people were talking about high oil prices, inflation and over valued stock markets. Suddenly, relatively speaking, all these issues have been turned on their head with oil prices crashing, deflation rather than inflation a concern now and stock markets that have fallen off a cliff. The interconnectedness of the global economy magnified the severity and speed of the economic downturn, but the same forces will also work in reverse to bring back economic growth just as fast.
marketfolly
· 11 months ago
good assessment andy. plus, markets are forward looking and will lead the recession by 6 months or so anyways, so i think by the end of '09, early '10 we could see some solid improvement
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John H. Kaighn
Jersey Benefits Advisors
The Kaighn Report